Tonight will be partly cloudy and mild. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms toward morning, mainly west of Madison as a warm front approaches. Temperatures will fall to the lower 70s by late evening; overnight low temperatures will fall to the middle 60s by morning.
Monday will start off mostly cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms in the morning. As the warm front lists to the north, it will become partly sunny. breezy, very warm, and humid in the afternoon. As a cold front approaches from the northwest, showers and thunderstorms will redevelop, and some of these thunderstorms may be severe with hail, high winds, and heavy rainfall possible. High temperatures will reach the middle 80s. The threat for severe weather and for showers and thunderstorms will end with the passage of the cold front on Monday evening.
Behind the cold front, Tuesday will be partly sunny and continued warm, but it will be less humid; high temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Wednesday will be partly sunny and warm as well with high temperatures in the middle 80s.
A storm system will move through the Midwest on Wednesday night and Thursday. Skies will become mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from later Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday will be warm and more humid with high temperatures near 80 degrees. Following the storm system, Friday will be partly sunny and pleasant with high temperatures in the upper 70s.
For next weekend, a storm system passing to our south on Saturday will bring variably cloudy skies and a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms; high temperatures will be in the middle 70s. Sunday will be partly sunny with a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm with high temperatures in the upper 70s.
TONIGHT:
Partly cloudy and mild with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms towards morning, mainly west of Madison.
Low: 64
Wind: NW to S 5-10 MPH
MONDAY:
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then becoming partly sunny, breezy, very warm, and humid in the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping; some thunderstorms may be severe with hail, high winds, and heavy rainfall.
High: 86
Wind: S/SW 10-20 MPH
MONDAY NIGHT:
Mostly cloudy and mild with showers and thunderstorms ending early, then becoming mostly clear overnight.
Low: 62
Wind: NW 8-15 MPH
TUESDAY:
Partly sunny and warm, but less humid.
High: 82
Wind: NW 8-15 MPH
WEDNESDAY:
Partly sunny and warm (becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms late at night).
Low: 58
High: 84
THURSDAY:
Mostly cloudy, warm, and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Low: 64
High: 80
FRIDAY:
Partly sunny and pleasant.
Low: 59
High: 78
SATURDAY:
Variable cloudiness with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Low: 59
High: 76
SUNDAY:
Partly sunny with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Low: 58
High: 78
NOTES:
The Storm Prediction Center says that there is an ENHANCED RISK for severe thunderstorms for Monday and Monday night for the eastern quarter of Iowa, the northern third of Illinois and most of southern and Eastern Wisconsin (west and south of a line from La Crosse to Hayward to Marinette, MI). There is a SLIGHT RISK for severe thunderstorms over southeastern Minnesota, the rest of the eastern two-thirds of Iowa, the rest of the northern half of Illinois, and the rest of Wisconsin. There is a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms over the rest of Minnesota (except for the far western and northern portions), the rest of Iowa, and the rest of the northern two-thirds of Illinois. A significant severe weather outbreak is possible on Monday over much of the central and northern Midwest. A warm front lifting northward through the Midwest will have a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of it on Monday morning, moving from Minnesota into Wisconsin. High winds (possibly gusting to 80 MPH) and hail are possible with these thunderstorms. After the morning thunderstorms, sunshine should warm temperatures into the 80s with dew points possibly climbing into the lower 70s by Monday afternoon. This will create an extremely unstable atmosphere ahead of a cold front which will move from Minnesota into Wisconsin and Iowa in the evening, and into Illinois Monday night. Strong wind shear will lead to the development of supercell thunderstorms later on Monday afternoon, developing into a squall line Monday night. Tornadoes (a few of which may be strong and long-tracked) damaging winds (with widespread wind damage and wind gusts to 80 MPH possible), and hail (with some hail to baseball sized or larger possible) should develop with the afternoon thunderstorms. The severe weather threat will end with the passage of the cold front Monday night.
There is some uncertainty yet as to when and where the afternoon severe thunderstorms will develop based on the timing of the morning thunderstorms and their effect of clouds and rain-cooled air disrupting the afternoon atmospheric instability. There is a possibility that upgrades to higher risk categories might be necessary once the effects of the Monday morning thunderstorms become more apparent.
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